Rafael Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), made it clear on June 29 that Tehran remains capable of restarting uranium enrichment within months despite recent attacks by U.S. and Israeli forces on Iranian nuclear facilities (FT.com, TimesofIsrael.com and Trend.az all provide coverage).
Grossi noted that while U.S. military strikes conducted on June 22, including Operation Midnight Hammer, had damage key sites at Natanz, Fordow and Isfahan; Iran’s remaining infrastructure and scientific expertise remains largely intact as a result. For more on this story please see TimesofIsrael.com +8 and The Times uk +8 (or similar).
Grossi believes they may possess “just a few cascades of centrifuges spinning and producing enriched uranium, or perhaps less,” as reported on news.com.au +5. In addition, some stockpiles may have been relocated prior to attacks involving these stocks of enriched uranium
Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) assessments have indicated that Iran’s nuclear capability may only be temporarily set back by airstrikes; giving Iran up to two months timeframe in which to restart enrichment (Reuters and New York Post respectively).
DIA report noted that underground facilities survived and enriched uranium remains on-site; however, U.S. officials later disproved these findings, asserting that strikes had completely crippled program.
timesofisrael.com +7 reuters +7 nypost +7
Last May, Iran had enough enriched uranium enriched to 60% (approximately 408 kg), according to an IAEA quarterly report, to produce up to nine nuclear bombs if further refined, according to IAEA’s own quarterly report (en.wikipedia.org; +4; Reuter’s).
Iran maintains that its nuclear energy ambitions are for peaceful energy uses only, citing compliance with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and religious prohibitions against weapons (en.wikipedia.org).
Experts advise against this scenario, since Iran could still have covert infrastructure to continue their program, even if key facilities like those at Isfahan were to become compromised and disrupted. On the contrary, such experts caution about Iran using covert facilities and covert conversion facilities such as in Isfahan to continue developing nuclear weapons (nypost.com. +2 timesofisrael.com + 2 thetimes.co.uk.).
David Albright from the Institute for Science and International Security expressed growing worries: Iran likely maintains additional underground sites that could become enrichment facilities (en.wikipedia.org/15 en.wikipedia org 15 and nypost.com 15).
Recent events have altered the geopolitical landscape. After IAEA’s June 12 finding of Iran’s noncompliance with nuclear safeguards – its first breach since two decades – Iran announced plans for opening previously unannounced enrichment sites [Wikipedia; Wsj;].
European powers are currently engaged in separate Geneva negotiations to limit Iran’s enrichment capabilities.
Some analysts warn that military strikes have only deepened distrust between countries and may accelerate Tehran’s nuclear ambitions rather than stopping them; diplomacy now faces diminishing chances as international tensions escalate.
As such, recent strikes may have inflicted damage; however, neither technical knowledge nor stockpiles of enriched uranium were eradicated by military strikes alone. With both DIA and IAEA assessments suggesting an ability for Tehran to resume enrichment within months after military strikes have been launched, military strikes’ effectiveness as deterrence seems increasingly doubtful. Thus, diplomatic pressure including renewed negotiations involving Europe, U.S. and possibly Iran must become ever more central if Tehran wishes to renew their nuclear ambitions before building out larger nuclear programs in other ways.