USCC recently issued a report to Congress acknowledging Pakistan’s military victory over India during their four-day May 2025 conflict, due to their use of advanced Chinese weaponry and an effective defensive strategy. For further reading and analysis on this topic please see The News International + Geo News reports here, here and here.
According to Geo News’ report, Pakistan made extensive use of Chinese-supplied systems such as the HQ-9 surface-to-air missile system, PL-15 beyond visual range missiles, and J-10C fighter aircraft.
These capabilities allowed Islamabad to shoot down Indian fighter jets–including French-made Rafales–and strike deeper into Indian territory than previously seen, according to Aaj English TV.
The USCC report stands in stark contrast with New Delhi’s account of India’s military operations. Though India launched initial strikes early May in retaliation for a deadly terrorist attack in Indian-administered Kashmir, Pakistani’s rapid counterresponse and air-defence performance was described in this report as having altered its operational balance and altered strategic balance accordingly.
Geo News.
Key Findings of this Report
Pakistan deployed advanced Chinese systems into combat for the first time ever, marking a step forward and strengthening Sino-Pakistani defence ties.
According to News International.
Reports indicate that Indian Rafale jets marketed as game changers were rendered ineffective against Pakistan’s defense network.
China provided Pakistan with advanced systems such as J-35 fifth-generation fighters and ballistic missile-defence systems following the conflict, according to a document obtained by Aaj English TV (Geo News) (+11).
Notably, the report highlights Pakistani operational and strategic success as being at the core of May conflict outcome, rather than simply labelling it a draw. There may be serious implications for India, Pakistan and regional security as a result.
Pakistan may take heart from the US report as validation of its military claims of countering Indian advances and protecting airspace–it may also help boost its defence diplomacy efforts and acquisition of Chinese systems. Islamabad can use these findings as leverage against Beijing while strengthening their alliance.
India faces a reputational risk from this assessment report. While their military has long attempted to portray their air power and defence systems as superior, this assessment suggests otherwise and analysts warn New Delhi may now come under increased scrutiny regarding effectiveness of defence planning as well as vulnerabilities of their air assets.
Regionally, this report illuminates the changing dynamics of air and missile warfare in South Asia. Pakistan’s use of Chinese-made platforms may sway future arms purchases, alliances and military planning across the region; its proliferation could increase risk that future conflicts escalate into highly advanced system engagements more rapidly than previously expected.
caution and nuance
Although its claims appear definitive, their veracity are far from settled. India has raised serious doubts regarding Pakistani claims concerning aircraft losses. Independent verification remains uncertain and the USCC itself frames its findings within an overall U.S.-China security context rather than providing definitive battlefield adjudication. South China Morning Post mes what to watch next.
Indices of India’s public response and disclosures regarding its May-conflict performance or losses will become clear over time.
Pakistan may use this report to increase defence cooperation with China or to negotiate additional military sales agreements.
How U.S. policy in South Asia responds: whether Washington reconsiders its defence ties with either India or Pakistan due to their changed capabilities.
Finally, this shifting balance of air and missile power could alter India-Pakistan flareups in future.
Conclusion of USCC Report The report presents an important evaluation: a smaller neighbour supported by China successfully challenged India’s air-military projections during an intense but brief confrontation, potentially prompting strategic adjustments within the region’s powers. Whether this will bring changes is yet to be seen.