President Trump declared the U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan as a “spectacular military success”, but analysts warn these attacks could unwittingly hasten Tehran’s pursuit of nuclear weaponization.
U.S. Airstrikes Damage But Do Not Erase Knowledge
Recent U.S. airstrikes against Iranian enrichment infrastructure were launched by B-2 stealth bombers, according to reports, but experts caution that nuclear know-how remains intact, although bombing sites may strengthen Iran’s resolve to rebuild and possibly consider withdrawing from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, according to experts at Arms Control Association and Time, respectively (Reuters.com +1 and Time respectively).
Enrichment at 60% Spurs Concern
Prior to the strikes, Iran had already increased uranium enrichment by 60 percent–an unprecedented step closer toward weapon grade levels. According to Reuters estimates, Iran had amassed about 120 kg of 60%-enriched uranium as it entered new facility construction phases (en.wikipedia.org +2, time.com, and ft.com all reporting this development).
Intelligence sources from both Iran and the IAEA later estimated it had enough material to rapidly produce multiple bombs if desired.
Military analysts warn of an Iran “North Korea-Style” Nuclear Dash
Military analysts caution of an imminent “North Korea-Style” nuclear dash by Iran: under threat, Tehran might accelerate covert enrichment and weaponization efforts despite currently inaccessible deep underground facilities like Fordow which still aren’t accessible without massive U.S. bunker-busters for example (The Guardian noted this fact as well as this on time.com +4 | En.Wiki.Org | Wikinews).
Now, knowledge and skilled personnel remain intact–while hidden sites could help Iran rebuild quickly.
Fatwa Vs Fear: Internal Pressure Builds
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei has long supported a fatwa banning nuclear arms, but internal voices, including advisers, have recently advocated abandoning it in light of foreign aggression, as pressure builds towards abandoning this policy (sources: ft.com, news.com.au and Wikipedia respectively).
If Iran feels threatened in any way, its religious safeguard may become null and void.
Analysts from the Atlantic Council and Arms Control Association predict military pressure could backfire on Iran by further solidifying hardliners within and stifling diplomatic openings. With European-mediated talks in Geneva paused and diplomatic channels closing, experts warn that Iran may feel trapped into taking defensive action.
Diplomatic Efforts Impede, Deterrence Harder European efforts to restart nuclear negotiations depend on Iran reducing enrichment rates and permitting inspections, but recent attacks have complicated these talks, further diminishing hopes for diplomatic resolution before further escalation. Time.com En.Wiki.Org/enWiki/Wiki/Yahoo
Military attacks alone cannot dismantle Iran’s nuclear ambitions; diplomacy will likely be needed.
What Are Iran’s Next Moves? Officials indicate possible missile strikes against U.S. forces and disruption of the Strait of Hormuz as retaliatory actions while simultaneously increasing nuclear efforts as deterrence; (Reuters.com). WATCHOUT FOR NUCLEAR THREAT!
Nuclear Threshold Nears!
With 250 kg of 60% uranium — enough for multiple bombs — in Iran’s possession, weaponization could occur within weeks if Iran continues pushing ahead, according to News.com.au +4. On either option — diplomacy or deterrence — Iran faces challenges that threaten its future security.
Without an effective diplomatic plan in place, further military strikes could plunge the region into an endless nuclear-armed standoff.
Conclusion Although U.S. and Israel strikes against Iran’s physical nuclear infrastructure have temporarily damaged it, neither have managed to dislodge Tehran’s resolve nor end its strategic capabilities. Indeed, striking may only deepen Tehran’s commitment to acquire a bomb as deterrence; without urgent diplomacy resumption this cycle may intensify, increasing risks of nuclear-armed Iran–and an uncertain Middle East environment: