Iran has extended an unexpected offer as the 2024 U.S. presidential race intensifies, promising Donald Trump an enormous economic benefit if he returns to office and revives the nuclear deal with Tehran. Experts remain doubtful as to whether any deal between these parties would provide such tangible economic gains for America.
Iranian officials and state media have recently floated the idea that engaging with Washington under a new administration under Donald Trump could open vast economic prospects for both sides. Lifting sanctions and reinstating the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) would pave the way for U.S. firms to invest in Iran’s untapped energy, infrastructure, and technology sectors – worth an estimated “well over one trillion dollars”, according to Tehran.
Although their claim may seem extreme, it has revived discussion regarding the potential economic repercussions of renewing nuclear agreements.
“This proposal is meant to appeal to Trump’s business instincts,” explained Farhad Alavi, an international trade lawyer based out of Washington D.C. “But its numbers remain uncertain and political hurdles pose significant barriers.
Under the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which President Trump withdrew from in 2018, Iran agreed to limit its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. As soon as we pulled out, relations deteriorated rapidly and harsh economic restrictions returned. Trump has maintained that this deal was one-sided and failed to curb Iran’s regional aggression.
However, Iran may be trying to shift the narrative by pitching any deal as not only a diplomatic concession but as an investment opportunity for someone like Donald Trump.
Experts caution that entering into another nuclear agreement would be far more complex than anticipated, due to geopolitical tensions, Iranian distrust of Washington, and strong opposition from Israel and Gulf allies. Furthermore, an independent U.S. energy sector may see little direct gain from Iranian oil exports, thus diminishing economic incentives to do so.
Rachel Ziemba, an adjunct fellow of the Center for a New American Security stated, “the promise of vast wealth is an illusion”. Even if sanctions were lifted, political risk is too great for most U.S. companies operating there.
Iran’s proposal may be more symbolic than real, yet it reveals Tehran’s shifting strategy, appealing directly to Trump’s economic interests rather than traditional diplomatic protocols. How this affects U.S. policy remains to be seen; what’s certain though is that any potential riches from revived agreements come with complex strings attached.